The geopolitical processes unfolding across the world are creating a new gas challenge in Europe, the world’s largest premium gas market. Europe is not facing an immediate physical gas crisis, and the European Commission has said that there are currently no immediate concerns over supply. Yet the growing tension in the market is already impossible to ignore.
Dutch TTF October gas futures rose 4.4% to €69.9 per megawatt-hour on August 31, the highest level since January 2023. European gas storage facilities were only 64.7% full, below the historical average for this time of year. The roots of Europe’s current gas vulnerability go back to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Before the war, Russia was by far one of Europe’s most important gas suppliers. In 2021, Russian pipeline gas accounted for around 40% of EU pipeline gas imports. By 2025, that share had fallen to approximately 6%, while Russia’s combined share of EU gas imports, including LNG, stood at around 12%.
The European Union has now moved further toward eliminating Russian gas altogether, with a ban on Russian LNG and pipeline gas imports scheduled to take effect through 2026-2027. This transformation has fundamentally changed the European gas market. Europe replaced a large portion of Russian pipeline gas with liquefied natural gas from the United States, Qatar and other producers.
LNG gave European buyers flexibility, but it also made them more exposed to global competition. Unlike pipeline gas, LNG is traded internationally and can be redirected toward whichever market offers the highest price. The latest crisis in the Gulf has exposed this vulnerability precisely.
Qatar, which previously supplied roughly 20% of global LNG, has seen its LNG exports collapse by 96% amid the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. According to , Qatar shipped only 18 LNG cargoes during the period compared with 509 in the same period a year earlier. Two Qatari LNG tankers were also attacked.
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