On Monday, I released my Week 4 Projections Risers and Fallers and marveled at the fact that, according to my math, Shough had the second-highest Week 4 projection at quarterback. Of course, as the week goes on, those projections often change, and I don't always rank quarterbacks as high as they are projected because of floor/ceiling concerns. So, before we get to the rest of the Week 4 QB preview, I thought it was worth spending a little time on why he's projected so high, and if we should buy it.
In other words, should we actually start Shough over Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and every other quarterback not named Josh Allen this week? My projections start at the team level, and I'm not sure any team has a better setup for a quarterback. The Saints have run 222 plays through three games, which averages out to 74 per game.
No other team is running more than 70 plays per game. Some of that is the Week 1 overtime game, but they have run 68 plays per game in the two games since. And Moore's offenses have averaged 64.5 plays per game over the last three seasons.
Volume is king in Fantasy Football, and Shough's Saints are just fast; they're also pass-heavy. Shough leads all starting QBs with a 76.7% true drop-back percentage. He also led the position in that mark last year.
If I haven't lost you yet, these numbers are huge not just for Shough, but also for Chris Olave, Devaughn Vele, and Juwan Johnson. Shough also averages 4.7 rush attempts per game and so far has added 4.1 Fantasy points per game on the ground over 12 career starts. Any quarterback who leads the NFL in pass attempts and runs this much is going to be useful in Fantasy Football, maybe even elite.
This week, Shough benefits from the fact that his Saints have an implied total of 25.5 points, the fifth highest of the week, and his starting running back, Travis Etienne, is out with a hamstring injury. A high-scoring game with even less of a running game looks like a springboard for a must-start QB. The final thing I'll say is a word about rankings.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
