Kevin Warsh stepped into a tough situation when he was sworn in as the new Federal Reserve chair in May. President Donald Trump appointed him in hopes that Warsh would cut interest rates -- or, at a minimum, leave them unchanged. However, the macroeconomic dynamics were converging in a way that heightened expectations that the Fed would have to increase rates.
But Warsh's job now appears to be much easier, thanks to two economic reports released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in recent weeks. Here's what's likely next for the stock market as a result.
This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia.
Continue » Only a few weeks ago, CME Group's (NASDAQ: CME) FedWatch put the probability that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would raise rates at its September meeting at roughly 82%. Today, the estimated odds of a rate hike in September are only 33%. What's behind the wild downward swing?
First, the BLS released the July jobs numbers on Aug. 7, 2026. Economists were expecting an increase of 83,000 jobs. Instead, the U.S. economy lost roughly 23,000 jobs.
The news was even worse than that. BLS also revised both May and June jobs growth down by a combined 103,000 jobs. Second, the BLS announced the July inflation numbers five days later.
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