Israel's election has produced a result that Americans accustomed to a two-party system might find peculiar: Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud won the most seats, yet his principal opponent has been given the first chance to become prime minister. Here’s a bit of an explanation. Israel is a single constituency, with voters choosing parties rather than individual district representatives.
Parties winning at least 3.25 percent of the national vote receive seats proportionally in the 120-member Knesset. A governing coalition ordinarily needs 61 seats, although minority governments are possible. That is all to say that, for all the criticism Israel receives over its democratic credentials, its electoral system is generous in giving competing political constituencies parliamentary representation.
Almost everyone gets a voice there. The problem, though, starts when all the different factions are asked to agree on anything. In the October 27 election, Netanyahu's bloc won 53 seats, against 48 for the Jewish-led opposition and 19 for Arab-led parties.
On November 8, President Isaac Herzog asked former military chief Gadi Eisenkot to form a government after 67 lawmakers recommended him. Eisenkot has 28 days, potentially extendable by two weeks. His success, or failure, could produce five different consequences for Washington.
Netanyahu could retain power by persuading opposition lawmakers to defect or join his coalition. The arithmetic is difficult, but Israeli political analysts have identified potential partners. For President Donald Trump, Netanyahu's survival would preserve a familiar negotiating partner on Iran, military cooperation and regional security.
Professor Eitan Shamir, director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University, said Netanyahu's personal relationship with Trump could be especially important. "Replacing Netanyahu would not necessarily improve relations with the White House, even if it improved relations with other Western governments," he told Newsweek. The complication is Netanyahu's reliance on nationalist and ultra-Orthodox allies.
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