A new poll released this week has given Democrat Peggy Flanagan an impressive lead over Republican Michele Tafoya in the race for Minnesota's Senate seat while other recent polls show a much more competitive race. Several key Senate races are unfolding this year that will determine control of Congress. Republicans seek to defend their House and Senate majorities and Democrats look to capitalize on competitive races that could flip control of both chambers in their favor.
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win control of the Senate and a net gain of three seats to win control of the House. In Minnesota, recent polling has showed a more competitive race than expected between Flanagan, the state's lieutenant governor, and Tafoya, a broadcast journalist. This is fueling Republican hopes that the state could deliver the GOP a surprise Senate win for the first time in over 20 years.
However, the newest New York Times/Siena University poll, widely considered one of the nation's highest-rated surveys, shows Flanagan surging ahead of Tafoya by 14 points. It implies that the race results might not end up being as close as analysts originally thought. The poll has a margin of error of plus/minus 4.1 points.
Newsweek reached out to both Flanagan's and Tafoya's campaigns by email for comment on Wednesday and is awaiting responses. The New York Times/Siena University poll surveyed 752 Minnesota voters between October 19 and 26. When asked who they would vote for in the November election, 54 percent of respondents said Flanagan, while only 40 percent said Tafoya.
The poll is an outlier and gives Flanagan her largest lead over Tafoya yet, more than tripling her lead in most other polls. The economy was top of mind for Minnesota voters surveyed in the poll, with 19 percent of them saying it was the most important factor in deciding which candidate to vote for. However, at 15 percent, concerns about corruption were not far behind.
Controversies have drawn attention to some of Minnesota's highest-profile Democratic politicians. These included a welfare fraud scandal that prompted calls for Democratic Governor Tim Walz's resignation. There was also a federal investigation into Democratic Representative Ilhan Omar's immigration history and a disputed claim that she married her brother to help him enter the United States.
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