Minnesota's record-breaking early voter turnout is rising fastest in seven rural counties previously won by President Donald Trump, offering a potentially encouraging sign for Republican Michele Tafoya in the state's closely watched Senate race against Democrat Peggy Flanagan, though some analysts warn the turnout data is not a reliable predictor of which party will benefit once all ballots have been cast. Several key Senate races are unfolding this year that will determine control of Congress. Republicans seek to defend their narrow House and Senate majorities and Democrats look to capitalize on competitive races that could flip control of both chambers in their favor.
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win control of the Senate and a net gain of three seats to win control of the House. In Minnesota, Democratic Senator Tina Smith is retiring when her term ends on January 3, which leaves an open Senate seat. While Minnesota has long been considered a Democratic stronghold, Tafoya has gained ground during this election cycle.
Corruption has emerged as a key issue for voters, with both candidates using it as a line of attack. Flanagan has centered much of her messaging on allegations of corruption tied to Trump, while Tafoya has sought to link Flanagan to controversies that have occurred during her tenure as lieutenant governor under Governor Tim Walz. Newsweek reached out to both campaigns by email for comment on Monday afternoon.
The closely watched midterm elections have led to a surge in early voting this election cycle, with several states having broken records, including Texas, where early voting began with a record 19 million registered voters eligible to cast ballots, and Georgia, where in-person early voting set a record last week at more than 2.2 million voters. Minnesota has also seen record-breaking turnout as of last week. More than 886,000 Minnesotans have voted early in-person or by absentee ballot as of Sunday, Minnesota's Secretary of State's Office reported.
In 2022, the last non-presidential election, there were 687,062 ballots cast during early voting in Minnesota. Minnesota's record-breaking early turnout is not confined to Democratic strongholds. Although large numbers of ballots have been cast in Minneapolis and other blue areas, seven rural counties previously won by Trump have seen some of the state's fastest growth in early voting since 2022, a trend that could be encouraging for Republicans in the competitive Senate race.
The seven counties are Swift, Clearwater, Chisago, Renville, Rice, Wadena, and Winona, according to an Axios report on Monday. "The Republicans have their best shot in 20 years at winning the state," Hamline University professor of political science and legal studies David Schultz recently told Newsweek, crediting the state's issues with corruption and "Democratic Party fatigue" as reasons why Republicans might secure a win. He added that he would not be surprised if Tafoya won the election.
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