We’re updating this forecast to move South Carolina from Lean R to Toss-up. As this week’s Power Rankings reported, Republicans already viewed this as an uncomfortably close race. That belief is now widely shared.
Tonight, the president is headed back there to help Sen. Darline Graham in the Upstate, where she underperformed in her primary runoff against Rep. New polling has Democratic challenger Annie Andrews and Graham tied at 48%-48%.
The Senate is still a toss-up with six states to decide the majority. On a good night for the Democrats, their ceiling rises to 54 seats. A good night for the Republicans could see them retain control with up to 52 seats.
It seems like there are two electorates in these midterms. The first is frustrated with President Trump and ready to reject Republicans. It includes growing numbers of independent, rural, and Hispanic voters who say they’ll vote for a Democrat.
That’s what the latest round of House polling shows, including a survey last week that had Democrats up 11 points on the generic ballot, and Fox’s most recent national poll. FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS: TRUMP COUNTRY AT A CROSSROADS The second electorate is wavering on Republicans but won’t necessarily hand Democrats the Senate. These are the voters in the Midwest and a few other places.
They say they prefer the Democrat or Republican in their states by a point or two at most. That’s the right conclusion from most of the battleground Senate polling. How could both things be true?
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