Eight weeks from today, millions of Americans will choose their next congressperson. Poll after poll tells us that the state of the economy will shape their choice: it’s the top issue for voters by a wide margin and most Americans are in a sour mood about it. We’ve learned from previous elections that voters consider a wide range of issues when they vote.
The "economy" has different meanings to voters. Optimism doesn’t win over voters on pocketbook issues. And this year, while voters aren’t happy with President Trump’s economy, that hasn't yet made them enthusiastic about the Democratic alternative.
These are the four rules to think about as we inch closer to the midterms. Meantime, Democrats inch closer to victory as the Power Rankings takes a fresh look at congressional races in Missouri and Ohio. The importance of the economy to elections has been a golden rule since the early '90s, when Democratic strategist James Carville famously cited "the economy, stupid" as the most important focus for a campaign.
Did you know it was only one of three orders he gave to candidates that cycle? The economy has been a top-three issue throughout the Trump era, including the last two midterm elections, where it was the most important issue for 47% of voters (2022) and 18% of voters (2018). If that 2018 figure feels low, it’s because health care (26%) and immigration (23%) finished ahead.
That year, Republicans lost 42 seats. No wonder another of Carville’s three rules for candidates was "don’t forget health care." (The third was "change vs more of the same.") HAKEEM JEFFRIES REJECTS MEDICARE FOR ALL, DSA AGENDA AS RO KHANNA CALLS HEALTH PLAN 'MOST IMPORTANT PRIORITY' The state of the economy bleeds into other major concerns, including health care. But even a strong economy wasn’t enough to get the GOP out of that election unscathed.
And health care looms as another important issue this year: it’s ranked close behind the economy in most surveys this year. When pollsters ask about voters’ views on the economy, they usually ask how important "the economy" or "the state of the economy" is, or whether they’re satisfied with Trump’s performance on that issue. In some important ways, Trump has a strong economic record.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
