There are only three Fridays left in the MLB regular season, including today, and in my mind one of the most mind-blowing statistics of the campaign so far is that Blue Jays superstar Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has not homered at home this season in 241 at-bats. Actually, he hasn't gone yard in a regular-season game at Rogers Centre (he did have few dingers there in the 2025 playoffs) since last Aug. 17 against Texas. Guerrero isn't a 40-homer hitter but is usually good for 25-30.
Sadly, I just can't recommend playing him tonight at +620 with the Orioles in Toronto. First off, Guerrero has a single homer this month in 35 at-bats. And secondly, he has only one career dinger in 24 career at-bats against Baltimore starter Kyle Bradish.
Big, big series, though, for potentially that last AL wild-card spot. Regarding MLB prop betting tonight, sadly none of the top hitter-friendly parks (Colorado, Sacramento, Cincinnati) are hosting games so I'm looking elsewhere. Bet home run props at DraftKings, where new users get $200 in bonus bets with a $5 wager: Those who want to get into MLB betting, particularly home run prop betting, need to take a look at what I'm playing for Friday's games.
Over the past four MLB seasons, I'm up $1,681 on MLB picks. You can find more of my picks at SportsLine, and in the member-exclusive SportsLine Discord server, a community of sports betting enthusiasts and SportsLine experts. Last Friday, my home run picks were the Braves' Matt Olson at +520 and Yankees' Jazz Chisholm at the same number.
At one point, Olson looked like he might win the season-long home run crown, but he's in a major power slump and was 0-for-4 in that Friday game in Philadelphia. Chisholm, one of the top projected free-agent position players set to hit the market but now on the injured list, also had an 0-fer in San Diego. Rare I don't get at least one guy at Over 1.5 total bases.
Remember, all my HR plays mean I like Over 1.5 total bases even better at the best sports betting apps. Bet home runs at BetMGM Sportsbook, where new users can get up to $1,500 in bonus bets here: It's a huge NL East series opener tonight as Philadelphia visits Atlanta for a 7:15 ET first pitch and if the Phillies have any shot of catching the Braves for the division title, they probably have to sweep. I think they lose tonight against Chris Sale, so forget about that.
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