BERLIN — German Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces the threat of being ousted as soon as this weekend, just 16 months after entering office promising an ambitious reform agenda and vowing to bring back German leadership in Europe. Ahead of two key state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin this Sunday, where Merz’s center-right Christian Democratic Union risks painful defeats, senior party members are privately discussing whether Germany needs a so-called Kanzlertausch — a change of chancellor — to arrest a rapidly accelerating decline in support for the government. Merz’s national popularity plummeted to just 14% this week, while a new poll shows his CDU/CSU conservative party alliance falling to an unprecedented low of just 18%.
That same poll shows the far-right Alternative for Germany leading with 29%. The AfD also finished first in a recent state election in Saxony-Anhalt, coming close to winning an absolute majority, while Merz’s CDU lost more than half of its voter support. European and international allies are watching with bewilderment as Germany — once a bastion of stability during the 16 years of Angela Merkel’s leadership — faces its second quick-fire change of leadership (Merz’s predecessor Olaf Scholz saw his ruling coalition collapse in November 2024).
Merz canceling his trip to the U.N. General Assembly next week threw the scale of his domestic crisis into sharp focus. POLITICO analyzed five scenarios for how the German leadership tumult could unfold — and rated their likelihood.
The chancellor has convened a high-stakes meeting of his party’s leadership on Sunday at 5 p.m., which will coincide with the state election exit polls at 6 p.m. At that meeting, Merz reportedly wants to ask his party allies whether they still back him and his reform plans. If not, he wants to urge them to put forward the name of a potential successor.
By seeking the confrontation, Merz will try to exploit a weakness of his critics: There is no clear consensus on who should take over. North Rhine-Westphalia’s Minister-President Hendrik Wüst (CDU) is frequently mentioned, but he has elections in his populous home state coming up in April — so the timing isn’t great for him. An alternative would be Markus Söder of the Christian-Social Union, the CDU’s Bavarian sister party, but he isn’t short of critics.
Other, less probable potential candidates are Hesse’s Minister President Boris Rhein (CDU) and Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt (CSU). However, should the elections Sunday be a total disaster for Merz’ conservatives — the party could even miss the 5% hurdle to enter parliament in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, for the first time in any state election — frustration within the CDU/CSU could boil over and lead to broad calls for Merz to resign. The showdown does not necessarily have to happen Sunday but could follow within the next days or weeks.
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