Days after Donald Trump announced a deal to import Russian diesel into the US in an effort to lower soaring pump prices, the world’s energy watchdog has warned that the global fuel shortage will drag into 2027. Trump’s temporary sanctions reprieve was criticised for offering “too little, too late” to temper the sky high pump prices triggered by the shutdown of war-damaged refineries in the Middle East and Russia – once the world’s second-largest diesel exporter behind the US. The International Energy Agency said on Wednesday that the shortage would stretch into the new year despite plans to ease trade sanctions or release emergency stockpiles, in a blow to the global economy.
Yet amid this gathering economic gloom some of the western refineries that turn crude oil into fuels are preparing to have their day. The global shortage that has led to high prices on UK forecourts is poised to hand them record profits. He said the energy crisis ignited by almost eight months of war in the Middle East had provided “plenty of opportunities if you’re able to capture them”.
For Pouyanné, the key to reaping the benefits of a global fuel crisis lies in owning a string of refineries across Europe that stand ready to cash in by selling diesel into a starved market. Diesel accounts for 10% of the world’s energy consumption, and is known as a “workhorse” fuel for its role powering the equipment vital for sectors ranging from agriculture, mining and manufacturing to shipping and logistics. But by last month supplies into the global market had fallen by about 1m barrels a day from their 2025 level, owing to a combination of damage to refineries in the Gulf and Russia, and export restrictions from China.
The soaring costs for businesses and consumers have economists worried. They are already piling pressure on areas of the global economy from US farmers in the midwest corn belt to local bus operators in England. Many fear a broader impact, as fuel prices raise the cost of food, goods and transport across the economy.
However, for some of the companies that turn crude into diesel this is a very lucrative crisis. TotalEnergies is far from alone in its good fortune. The biggest windfalls are likely to come from refiners in the US, where exports of fuel products have climbed by more than 50% in the past year from about 1.25m barrels a day to an all-time high of 1.9m barrels a day over the summer, effectively offsetting the losses from Gulf refineries.
The market value of three of the largest US oil refiners – Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy and Phillips 66 – have more than doubled since the start of the crisis. The US listed stocks have climbed by a combined $215bn this year as their shares rose steadily to reach successive record highs. In the coming weeks these refineries are expected to reveal their largest-ever profits.
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