The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is leading in the polls as voters in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt head to the polls today, September 6, 2026, putting the party on the brink of leading a German state government for the first time since World War II. The AfD is polling at around 42%, according to the latest ARD/Infratest dimap survey, putting it roughly 20 percentage points ahead of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which stands at 22%. A victory would not automatically allow the AfD to form a government.
Germany’s proportional electoral system generally requires parties to build governing coalitions, while Germany’s established political “firewall” has traditionally prevented mainstream parties from cooperating with the AfD. All major parties have ruled out forming a coalition with the AfD, leaving the party with a narrow route to power: securing an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament and governing alone. The outcome could depend heavily on smaller parties and whether they clear Germany’s 5% electoral threshold.
If parties such as the Greens, SPD, FDP or Sahra Wagenknecht’s BSW fail to enter the parliament, the distribution of seats could increase the AfD’s share and potentially bring it closer to an outright majority. AfD state leader Ulrich Siegmund, 35, has campaigned on an anti-immigration and nationalist platform and has indicated that he does not intend to pursue a compromise coalition with other parties. If the AfD were to secure an absolute majority and form the state government, it would mark the first time since World War II that a far-right party leads a German state government.
The party’s Saxony-Anhalt branch is classified by Germany’s domestic intelligence service as a confirmed right-wing extremist organization. The election is therefore being closely watched beyond Saxony-Anhalt, as an AfD breakthrough would represent a major challenge to Germany’s longstanding political consensus around excluding the far right from government. The vote could also have implications for national politics ahead of Germany’s 2029 federal election, when the AfD is expected to seek a much larger role in forming the country’s political agenda.
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