BRUSSELS — The prospect of the far right running a German state for the first time since 1945 will provide the clearest warning yet to EU governments about the urgency of striking a deal on the bloc’s next seven-year budget. Sunday’s regional election in Saxony-Anhalt is giving European diplomats cause to sound the alarm over how disagreements between countries will only get worse next year. With 2027 set to see votes in France, Spain, Italy, Poland, Greece, Estonia and Slovakia, the prospect of other Euroskeptic voices sweeping to power — with a mandate to make the EU less expensive and less powerful — is focusing minds on getting a deal on the budget before the end of the year, four diplomats and officials told POLITICO.
With its mix of nationalism and anti-migration rhetoric, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is on course to be within a few seats of winning an absolute parliamentary majority in the east German state on Sunday. While that won’t directly change the country’s national leadership, votes in other countries next year might. Neither of the two main groups of countries, those that want the EU to have more to spend and those that want it to have less, has seen an advantage in giving ground so far.
European Council President António Costa is currently touring capitals in an effort to narrow differences. If we don’t get it in December, it can’t be February or March, that will be too close to the French election.” Brussels is spooked by the prospect of France’s far-right veteran Marine Le Pen winning the country’s presidential election, scheduled to start on April 18, and following through on her campaign pledge to halve France’s contribution to the EU budget, the diplomats and EU officials said. But while at the European level that adds urgency for France to get a deal before the election, domestic pressures make it more complicated.Macron, whose far-right opponents are pushing for massive reductions in the country’s own EU contributions, is under pressure to get a deal that won’t worsen Paris’ national economic woes.
He is pushing for new EU-wide taxes, known as “own resources,” as a way to pay for the bloc’s priorities without capitals being stuck with the bill themselves. France wants to give Brussels the power to put levies on U.S. digital giants, foreign polluters and online gambling. Germany is leading a group of countries that want the EU budget to be smaller than that proposed by the European Commission, but any cuts will hit the very areas Brussels most wants to strengthen — competitiveness, defense and security — EU Budget Commissioner Piotr Serafin told reporters on the sidelines of the meeting.
Those top priorities could “become the first victims of cuts,” he said. The budget will be discussed at a summit of EU leaders on Oct. 15, where Ireland will present an updated negotiating position. An additional summit is expected to be held Nov. 26-27, two officials confirmed, to advance the talks and a final, potentially very long, meeting will take place in December, where leaders will be persuaded not to leave without striking a deal, they said.
Countries are still split on the scale of the budget, with a handful of wealthier countries led by Germany pushing for hundreds of billions of euros to be shaved off the seven-year spending plan. Others, including Romania, Poland and other net recipients of EU funds, want to maintain the size of the pot. Meanwhile, the EU’s frontier countries have launched a push for more funding to deal with Russia’s hybrid threats and shore up their economies.
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