As much of the attention in Texas this fall has focused on the U.S. Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton, another statewide contest has been tightening under the radar: Governor Greg Abbott's bid for a record fourth term. A new YouGov poll of 3,622 likely voters, conducted September 28 through October 5, has Democratic state Representative Gina Hinojosa narrowly ahead of Abbott, 48 percent to 47 percent, with 5 percent undecided.
The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Pollsters have traded leads all fall. A year ago, few Texas Republicans would have predicted that Abbott, who has won each of his three races for governor by double digits, would be scrapping for votes less than four weeks before Election Day.
If Hinojosa wins, she would be the first Democrat to hold the office since Ann Richards left in 1995. If Abbott wins, he would be on track to become the longest-serving governor in Texas history. Newsweek reached out to Hinojosa and Abbott campaigns for comment Wednesday.
Age is the sharpest dividing line in the YouGov survey. Hinojosa takes 64 percent of voters under 30 and 58 percent of those aged 30 to 44. Among Texans 65 and older, Abbott wins 61 percent to 36 percent.
Gender splits the electorate almost evenly in both directions, with women backing Hinojosa 52 percent to 42 percent and men favoring Abbott by an identical margin. On race and ethnicity, Hinojosa leads Hispanic voters 58 percent to 37 percent and Black voters 80 percent to 12 percent. Abbott carries white voters by 21 points, a lead built mostly on white Texans without a college degree, who back him 68 percent to 29 percent.
White college graduates are essentially a coin flip at 47 percent for Hinojosa and 46 percent for Abbott. Republican strategist Mike Madrid, who has spent years tracking Hispanic voting behavior, said the numbers reflect something the political establishment has been slow to grasp. "People, I think, broadly are failing to understand that the Latino vote is the largest swing vote in America," Madrid told Newsweek in an interview.
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