This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: Armed conflict accelerates cropland loss, and the effects can persist for years after conflict begins and vary substantially with conflict severity and social conditions, according to a new study published in Nature Food on Sept. 24. The study, led by professor Li Guangdong, Dr.
Qi Wei and professor Wang Zhenbo from the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, provides global evidence of the long-term effects of armed conflict on cropland and agricultural production. Armed conflict is widely recognized as a major driver of food insecurity, but its long-term effects on cropland have been poorly understood at the global scale. In this study, the researchers combined annual 30-m-resolution global cropland maps from 2000 to 2020 with more than 460,000 georeferenced armed conflict events across 155 countries.
They examined cropland changes in buffer regions extending 5 kilometers (3.1 miles) from conflict locations. They then used difference-in-differences and propensity score matching statistical methods to distinguish conflict-related changes from broader environmental and socioeconomic trends. The study found that areas exposed to armed conflict covered only about 3% of the global land area yet accounted for more than 6% of the world's cropland in 2020, indicating disproportionate exposure of agricultural land to conflict.
While global cropland expanded overall between 2000 and 2020, cropland within conflict-affected areas declined slightly over the same period. Further analysis showed that armed conflict was associated with an average 3.01% reduction in cropland area, equivalent to an annual loss of 14.46 hectares (35.7 acres) per conflict-exposed buffer region. These effects persisted for years after the onset of conflict.
A complementary spatial comparison showed that conflict-affected areas experienced 23.7% greater cropland loss than otherwise comparable nonconflict areas. The largest losses were concentrated in western Africa, eastern Africa and Southeast Asia. According to the researchers, the agricultural consequences of armed conflict vary substantially across regions and depend on conflict severity and social context.
The effects varied substantially with conflict intensity and duration. Areas experiencing very frequent conflict showed particularly severe cropland losses, with the highest-frequency group losing about one-third of its cropland. Protracted and high-severity conflicts were associated with much greater losses than intermittent or low-severity conflicts.
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