Soaring diesel prices, lingering tariff damage and the economic fallout from the Iran war are putting Republican Senate seats at risk in five of the country’s biggest farm states, three weeks before Election Day. Iowa, Nebraska, Texas, Kansas and North Carolina all rank among the top 10 states for agricultural cash receipts, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service.
All five Senate seats are in Republican hands, but the map could look very different after November 3. Each of those races has moved toward Democrats, or independents in Nebraska’s case, according to recent polling averages, forecasts and prediction markets. Most point to the start of the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28 as the turning point.
For farmers, the war showed up as a bill. On-highway diesel averaged a record $6.529 a gallon nationally in the week of September 21, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
When the fighting started, it cost roughly $3.80 to $3.90. Fertilizer jumped too after Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global supplies. High prices have been especially damaging for President Donald Trump, who carried all five states in 2024 but now has an underwater net approval rating in four of them, according to the latest Civiqs tracking poll.
Republican strategist Alex Patton told Newsweek he thinks “the cake is baked.” “The GOP isn’t going to solve inflation, the war, gas prices in the next few weeks,” Patton said. Trump won Iowa, Texas, Kansas and Nebraska by 13 to 20 points in 2024, and North Carolina by 3.3 points. His standing has since fallen in all five states.
The Cook Political Report, a leading nonpartisan election forecaster, now rates three of the five Senate races as toss-ups. It rates North Carolina Likely Democratic and Nebraska Likely Republican, though the latter is becoming more competitive. On October 6, Cook moved North Carolina's open Senate race from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
