Senate race was hardly on anyone’s radar as a competitive contest. Then a poll put a Republican Senate seat that had long looked safe on the political map and got operatives on both sides paying attention. Senator Tom Cotton, a Republican seeking a third term on November 3, and the groups backing him have put about $13.6 million into advertising this cycle.
Hallie Shoffner, the Democrat trying to unseat him, and her allies have spent $208,703. The ratio is roughly 65 to 1, according to AdImpact figures first reported by Punchbowl News, in a state President Donald Trump carried by 31 points two years ago. Every major forecaster still rates the seat safe for Republicans.
So why is so much money being spent on a race that few expected to be competitive? Republicans say the spending is about defining an unknown challenger and showing strength. Democrats say it reflects fear.
Nobody can agree on what the margin in November will be. No political operative outside Arkansas paid much attention to the race until August. A February GrayHouse poll, conducted for America One Policies, a group affiliated with Cotton, showed him leading 58 to 36, a result that surprised no one.
Then Talk Business & Politics and Hendrix College released a poll of 1,217 likely voters on August 19 putting Shoffner at 47 percent and Cotton at 44, inside a margin of error of 4.7 points. The same survey had Trump's disapproval in the state at 53 percent against 46 percent approval, his worst showing there. Other numbers cut the other way.
Partners, surveying 803 likely voters from August 14 to 18, found Cotton ahead 51 to 35. Shoffner's own pollster, 2040 Strategy Group, had her down 3 in July. Polymarket and Kalshi have both sat near 95 percent for Cotton.
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