When a franchise has a quarterback on a rookie deal, it's a constant evaluation process. "Is this the quarterback that can win us a Lombardi trophy?" is the question that GMs and fanbases alike ask themselves on a weekly basis. Four weeks into the season, and I'd argue two young quarterbacks have answered that with a resounding "yes" who, prior to the season, we were far more unsure about, while numerous others with high hopes are still waiting for an answer.
Here's how every rookie contract starter has graded out through four weeks. Young has been given arguably the longest leash of any first-round quarterback in modern NFL history and that patience is finally bearing fruit in year four. Last year, Young ranked 27th among starters in EPA/dropback and barely cracked 3,000 yards for the season.
Now, no one has more passing yards through four games than Young's 1,268 (317 per game) and he ranks 9th in EPA/dropback. The Panthers have scored 32 or more points in three of their four games after accomplishing that feat precisely zero times a season ago. It's the football equivalent of a caterpillar transforming into a butterfly.
So how did it happen exactly? The answer is obviously a confluence of factors, but I'd argue it's two big things: his ability to diagnose presnap and his postsnap footwork. One of Young's biggest selling points out of Alabama was his ability to create big plays outside of structure, and that's continued in the league, where he's averaged more yards per attempt on dropbacks over 2.6 seconds than under in every season in his career.
The problem in the first three seasons, however, was that the inside of structure plays were a disaster. He rarely knew where best to go with the ball in rhythm and averaged 5.5 yards per attempt on throws under 2.6 seconds, his first three seasons. This year, that number is 7.8 and his completion percentage is up 7.0 points from his previous career high on such throws.
Below is one of my favorite plays from Young this season, highlighting his presnap improvements (despite it coming in a loss). Big boy throw by Bryce Young pic.twitter.com/TQfa0tcEkC A few things to unpack here. The first is his recognition of the blitz and adjustment of the protection by reducing the tight end to get an extra blocker involved.
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