LONDON — Keir Starmer’s old seat in the Commons is up for grabs. Zack Polanski is throwing everything at turning the Labour stronghold of Holborn and St. The leader of the left-wing populist Green Party is almost certain to be selected to stand in the Oct. 8 contest Thursday night, and activists have already flooded constituents with leaflets — with Polanski claiming they delivered 80,000 in just two hours Sunday.
Labour is mounting its defense. Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband — a popular figure on the Labour left who fronted a new set of trade sanctions on Israel this week — has already visited the seat, delivering a message of hope to Labour canvassers days after the former British prime minister announced he was standing down. Pancras has had a Labour MP since its creation in 1983.
The Greens would need to overturn Starmer’s 11,572 vote majority. For the two main parties in contention in the race to replace Starmer, there is a lot at stake. This is Andy Burnham’s first test in a parliamentary by-election since becoming prime minister over the summer.
For Labour, holding onto Holborn and St. Pancras would send a message that Labour’s image has been successfully divorced from Starmer’s unpopularity. It would also be an encouraging sign voters have accepted him as the new prime minister and are prepared to buy into his plan for government.
The selection on Wednesday night of Camden Council Leader Sagal Abdi-Wali as the Labour candidate — who came to the U.K. as a refugee from Somalia — could also help the party’s chances. Reform UK spokesperson Zia Yusuf attacked Abdi-Wali’s background when she emerged as the frontrunner, and Labour will likely make the argument for progressive voters to back Abdi-Wali in a show of strength against Nigel Farage’s party. However, losing a seat that has been deemed safe for so long would be damaging for both Burnham and the party, as it would suggest that the reputational damage Labour suffered under Starmer had stuck.
Sending such a high-profile party figure as the foreign secretary to address campaigners, while canvassers have already hit the streets, is a telling sign in a seat that historically should be a slam dunk for anyone wearing a red rosette. A win for the Greens could be significant for two reasons. First, if Polanski wins the nomination to be the party’s candidate, it would put party leader in the House of Commons.
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