Texas Governor Greg Abbott and Democratic state Representative Gina Hinojosa are in a dead heat in a new poll of the state's gubernatorial race, as President Donald Trump and top Republicans descend on Texas for a major midterm campaign push. Democrats have long sought to make inroads in Texas despite the state's decades-long red streak. Texas has not elected a Democratic governor since Ann Richards' victory in 1990, and GOP presidential nominees have carried the state in every election since 1980.
Still, Democrats argue that voter concerns about the economy, Trump's declining approval ratings and the prolonged war with Iran could create openings in state races, including for the governorship and the U.S. Despite growing optimism among Democrats in the governor's race, the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball still rate the contest as 'Likely Republican', though the Cook Political Report adjusted the race from 'Solid Republican' late last month. The new poll comes as Trump and other GOP leaders convene in Texas for “Trump-a-Palooza,” a high-profile GOP gathering aimed at energizing voters ahead of the November elections.
Newsweek has reached out to Abbott and Hinojosa’s press teams for comment via email on Wednesday. The Texas governor's race is one of 36 gubernatorial contests taking place nationwide this year, a cycle that includes several other high-profile races in states such as Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada and Georgia. Abbott is a strong conservative and staunch Trump ally who was first elected to the state's top office in 2014 and reelected in 2018 and 2022.
A fourth term would put Abbott on track to become the longest-serving governor in Texas history, surpassing Rick Perry, who served from 2000 to 2015. Hinojosa, a lawyer who was sworn in to the Texas House in 2017, secured the Democratic nomination in March. The incumbent is viewed by forecasters and prediction markets as a strong favorite for reelection, with Kalshi and Polymarket putting Abbott's odds of winning at 82 percent, as of Wednesday evening.
Polls, however, suggest the race could be closer than his 11-point victory over Beto O’Rourke in 2022. An N+ Univision/YouGov poll of 1,000 Texas voters found Hinojosa and Abbott deadlocked, both at 47 percent. About 5 percent were undecided, and 1 percent said they were supporting a different candidate.
Among Latino voters, Hinojosa holds a 12-point advantage over Abbott, leading 54 percent to 42 percent. Her support is even stronger among Latina women, who favor her by 18 points, 57 percent to 39 percent. The race is far tighter among Latino men, where Hinojosa holds a narrow 49 percent to 47 percent edge over Abbott.
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