Texas Governor Greg Abbott has moved narrowly ahead of Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa in a new poll, reversing last month’s result as the race enters its final weeks. The ReconMR survey found that 48 percent of likely Texas voters would support Abbott, a Republican, while 47 percent would back Hinojosa, a Democratic state representative. Some 2 percent selected someone else or said they would not vote, while 3 percent were undecided or declined to answer.
The one-point difference is within the poll’s margin of error, meaning the survey does not establish a clear leader. Still, it marks a five-point shift from September, when Hinojosa led Abbott by four points, 49 percent to 45 percent. Abbott retains overwhelming support among Republican voters, leading Hinojosa by 92 percent to 5 percent.
Hinojosa leads among Democrats by 94 percent to 2 percent and among likely independent voters by 57 percent to 34 percent. Regional figures show Abbott ahead by 25 points in rural Texas. Hinojosa leads 75 percent to 22 percent in Austin, 52 percent to 44 percent in Houston and 53 percent to 42 percent in San Antonio and South Texas.
The candidates are tied at 48 percent in Dallas-Fort Worth. Abbott’s job approval rating remains negative, with 48 percent approving and 51 percent disapproving. His favorability rating stands at 46 percent favorable and 50 percent unfavorable.
Hinojosa is viewed favorably by 44 percent and unfavorably by 37 percent, while 20 percent do not know enough about her to offer an opinion. Despite the close voting intention numbers, 62 percent of respondents said they expected Abbott to win, compared with 29 percent who predicted a Hinojosa victory. ReconMR surveyed 617 likely Texas voters from October 5 to 8, 2026.
The poll has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, including design effects from weighting. This is a developing story and will be updated. Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story.
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