With dividends reinvested, it has significantly outperformed mortgage REITs and other financial stocks since its IPO. This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia.
For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue » AGNC Investment's founders formed it in the depths of the financial crisis, seeing an opportunity to create a leading Agency MBS (mortgage-backed securities guaranteed against credit losses by government agencies like Fannie Mae). It invests in Agency MBS on a leveraged basis, primarily through repurchase agreements, and uses dynamic risk management strategies to navigate market risks, including interest rate changes.
The company has had to maneuver around several market cycles, unexpected events, and market volatility over the years, which have weighed on its investment returns and earnings. AGNC Investment has still managed to significantly expand its Agency MBS portfolio (it reached $97.2 billion at the end of the second quarter), financed primarily by selling stock. As a result, its shares outstanding have risen a staggering 7,660% since its IPO.
This combination of earnings volatility and dilution is why its share prices have fallen 50% since the IPO. Despite all AGNC Investment has faced over the years, it has paid dividends every period since its IPO, starting quarterly before switching to monthly dividends in October 2014. However, while the REIT consistently paid dividends throughout its history, the rate has steadily fallen: Still, it has now paid out over $50 per share in cumulative dividends since its IPO.
That dividend income has more than offset the roughly $10 decline in its share price since the IPO. For example, if an IPO investor reinvested their dividends, their total return would be nearly 600% (over 11% annualized). That's higher than the total return of other financial stocks, mortgage REITs, and real estate since its IPO.
However, if an IPO investor pocketed the cash, their cumulative return would be much lower at 200%, though that has still more than offset the $10-per-share decline in the stock price. Given its business model and history, investors shouldn't look at AGNC Investment's current 14.4% dividend yield and assume they can bank on that as their annual return. The REIT's share price and dividend are likely to continue to decline as it navigates volatility and issues additional shares to grow its portfolio.
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