The chancellor's aides are using intelligence-style security measures to guard its secrets: the Budget has been split into "compartments" with very few given access to all of them. The IT has been locked down and ministers viewing the plans have to sign a digital promise not to brief media. Such security is a response to the feeling that speculation around the last Budget, sometimes informed by insiders, was economically destabilising.
As a recent former defence secretary, Chancellor John Healey has embraced such strict procedures, and has approached most of his public engagements and interviews with a sturdy refusal to break the Budget omertà, akin to his fellow Yorkshireman Geoffrey Boycott's at times ultra-defensive stance on a cricket pitch. The economic news has been good - growth has been better than expected and the International Monetary Fund has endorsed the UK for "standing out" among the G7 countries for at least planning to cut borrowing. The bond market's reverse beauty contest, in which investors single out the countries they distrust most, has moved on from Britain.
Traders I occasionally hear from who were once focused on UK borrowing costs are now more preoccupied with "le spread" - the widening gap between French and German borrowing costs (the former being higher than the latter) - and with America's long-term debt outlook. And yet there are clouds on the horizon. The inflation rate rose more than forecast to 3.5% in September, and borrowing numbers were also higher than forecast.
This means an imminent Bank of England rate rise is very much on the cards, with the resultant rise in mortgage repayments for some. Credibility with investors requires not just that Budget maths add up on Wednesday, but also belief that growth plans are realistic, and the perception that Downing Street can actually convince MPs to pass its Budget. The question for John Healey is whether he can deliver a Budget that can sustain the revival in growth and offer the help with the cost of living that his backbenchers demand.
At the same time he needs to reassure the markets that his budget will keep a check on borrowing. "Is it resilient, or is it actually strong?" has been the tone of the debate among economists about the curious case of the UK economy ahead what is a vital Budget. The UK is the fastest growing G7 country so far this year, at 0.6% in Q1 and 0.5% in Q2.
The widespread assumption of stagnation in the second half is being defied with Q3 heading for 0.6 to 0.8%. Each quarter has seen growth twice as fast as predicted by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) in March and independent forecasters. This is the fastest growth in the first eight months of a year since 2017, ignoring the post-lockdown re-opening.
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