It was hardly surprising that Tehran chose the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York as the platform for its latest offer. After nearly seven months of war with the United States, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi returned with a plan that, on its face, says the waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and a similar share of its gas pass could reopen within seven days if Washington accepts Tehran’s conditions. But reading the offer simply as a de-escalation initiative misses what is most dangerous about it.
In reality, it is an attempt to turn leverage Iran itself created into a bargaining chip to be sold at the highest possible price. And Tehran wants part of that price paid in Yemen. As presented by Araghchi, the plan calls for a seven-day cessation of hostilities across the region, including Lebanon; the release of at least $12bn in frozen Iranian assets; the lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil; and an end to the US naval blockade.
In return, the Strait of Hormuz would reopen through a new route determined by Iran and Oman. That final detail alone is enough to show what Tehran is seeking. It is not a return to the way the strait operated before the war, but the establishment of a new reality in which international shipping becomes conditional on an arrangement set by Iran.
There is little need for inference here. Iran already requires ships to obtain prior authorisation before passing through, while vessels that refuse are targeted. And when Tehran takes its proposal to Beijing in search of Chinese backing and secures support from Oman, it is building a regional political framework around this new reality that would make it much harder to reverse later.
The picture becomes clearer still when the timing is considered. Tehran has made no secret of the fact that it is watching the US political calendar, openly signalling that it would prefer to reach an agreement before the midterm elections, at a moment when rising energy prices are putting pressure on both American consumers and the administration. The calculation is straightforward: Iran knows that the cost of keeping the strait closed rises for its opponent as the November elections approach, so it is offering a solution at the moment when that solution is at its most valuable.
The most dangerous element of the offer, however, is the inclusion of Yemen in the bargain. Hossein Mohebbi, a spokesperson for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) who oversees Iran’s Yemen portfolio, told the news agency that ending hostilities in Yemen was among Tehran’s demands. Notably, this new condition was announced by the IRGC and may not appear in the plan presented by Araghchi.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
