With fall slowly creeping up, experts are warning of a record strong El Niño, colloquially dubbed “super El Niño.” The weather event is expected to impact global temperatures and rainfall, and could increase the risk of extreme weather events in some parts of the world. El Niño, and its opposite La Niña, are climate patterns that naturally occur in the tropical Pacific. El Niño years tend to see warmer than average waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, while La Niña years are associated with colder than average water temperatures.
The corresponding weather events triggered by the warmer ocean can have a varied and strong impact around the globe. With El Niño, forecasters are expecting to see stormier weather in some parts of the world and drought conditions in others. That means the Pacific waters are going to be warmer than normal, and we can expect a lot of evaporation,” says Risper Nyairo, assistant professor in the department of environmental studies at Davidson College.
That evaporation means more moisture in the sky in some areas which can lead to more rain. Meanwhile evaporation over dry land can increase drought. El Niño typically peaks in the last few months of the year, but will remain active in the beginning of 2027.
Forecasts are predicting that this year’s El Niño will be the strongest in recorded history. The warmer oceans, coupled with already record warming due to climate change, means that 2027 could shape up to be the warmest year on record. The World Meteorological Organization has also warned that a strong El Niño could raise the risk of extreme weather events going into next year.
Australia, Indonesia, and parts of Southern Africa, including Zambia and Zimbabwe, are likely to see drier than average conditions. Parts of South America, including Ecuador, Peru, and Uruguay, and East African countries will experience more rainfall than usual. U.S. residents don’t have to sound the alarm over El Niño, says Patrick Rafter, assistant professor in the College of Marine Science at USF.
It can also increase the likelihood of tornadoes in areas receiving wetter weather. El Niño years are typically associated with quieter hurricane years off the Atlantic. This year, the Atlantic hurricane season reached its peak without a single storm.
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