If you digest football online, you've probably heard this before: "everyone in the NFL is going under center now," and it's true. Across the league, NFL teams are going under center to manufacture their offense at a rate we haven't seen this decade. According to TruMedia, through Week 3, the under-center rate is 42.0%, the highest the league has seen since 2013.
If we want to parse it further, on early downs (first and second down), 2026's 49.6% under-center rate is also the highest since 2013. Even with the higher under-center frequency, the leaguewide success rate under center (47.4%) is also the highest it's been in that same time period (2025 is second at 46.9%). Teams are returning to ethical football, leaving behind the shotgun/RPO world we thought we'd get after the iconic Rams-Chiefs shootout of 2018.
But how are defenses countering the return to the under-center game that offenses are throwing at them? Longtime college defensive coordinator Don Brown once said to "solve your problems with aggression," and NFL defenses have taken note. The leaguewide blitz rate against all under-center passes is 51% through three weeks, the highest the NFL has seen since TruMedia started tracking blitz rate in 2006.
Teams are leaning into the aggression to cause chaotic plays, but the reason why is a great illustration of the constant battle for supremacy within the white lines. We have to start with the run game, which is a large part of why the NFL has moved to more under-center offense. As Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan's roots grew around the NFL, the staple run has been the outside zone.
In 2026, teams are running outside zone on almost 40% of their designed rushes, the highest since TruMedia began tracking in 2016. On outside zone and all zone run plays in general, you're blocking an area, not a man. If nobody is in your area, you move up to the second level.
You also have to combine this with formations becoming much more condensed. Per Sumer Sports, the average formation width has shrunk to 22.67 yards, almost six yards shorter than the formation width in 2016. By condensing formations, you get a formula in which receivers are more involved as run blockers, and teams can mask their play-action game by making every run look similar.
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