Beirut, Lebanon – A day after the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel and the beginning of Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza, Hezbollah made the decision to join the war, in what it said was support of the Palestinian people. It is a decision that analysts say has forever shaped Lebanese politics. Experts said the group had underestimated the depth of Israel’s intelligence penetration in the run-up to the war, which later manifested in the bloody September 2024 pager attack and the assassination of much of Hezbollah’s leadership, including Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah.
And while analysts say the group has not been defeated, despite claims to the contrary from some critics, it is no longer the political or military hegemon in Lebanon it once was. Before October 7, Hezbollah – a group representing Lebanon’s large Shia community – was the strongest political and military actor inside the country. The Iranian-backed group’s influence stretched across the region.
Hezbollah was a key ally of the al-Assad regime in Syria and helped it retake territory from anti-Assad opposition groups. It also had connections with allies in places such as Iraq and Yemen. Hezbollah had key electoral influence in Lebanon, where it often wielded its power to elect or collapse governments.
It was also not against deploying its supporters against movements opposed to it, as in 2019 when they took to the streets of Beirut to beat back protesters calling for political reform of the country’s sectarian system, in which Hezbollah has become a key player in the years since the end of Lebanon’s 15-year civil war in 1990. In the months leading up to October 2023, Hezbollah’s confidence was on clear display. Blanford pointed to examples such as a military parade in south Lebanon conducted by Hezbollah, and the group erecting tents in the Shebaa Farms – on territory that Lebanon considers occupied by Israel.
At the time, Israel was roiled by protests, and Nasrallah was delivering speeches predicting the imminent doom of Israel. The decision to join the fight against Israel in what became known in Lebanon as the War of Support came on October 8, 2023. Tens of thousands from southern Lebanon and northern Israel fled their homes.
But in September 2024, Israel unilaterally intensified attacks. The Israeli-induced carnage came quickly and heavily, with nearly 500 people killed on September 23 alone. When Nasrallah was said to have accepted a ceasefire – according to Lebanese officials quoted in media reports – Israel ordered his assassination and the evacuation of areas of Beirut’s southern suburbs.
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