Less than a calendar year ago, the Toronto Blue Jays were barely a hairsbreadth from toppling the mighty Los Angeles Dodgers, winning the World Series for the first time in more than three decades, and perhaps even reshaping ongoing labor negotiations. That would seem to be a foundation for success in the current season, especially since the winter in between that pennant and the present moment saw the Jays make the headline addition of Dylan Cease, who's delivered and then some in his first season in Toronto. Still and yet, the Jays at this writing are below .500 and on pace to shed 15 wins from their 2026 regular-season tally.
If the season ended today, the Jays would miss the postseason altogether. These unexpected struggles raise a couple of matters that merit further exploration -- how it happened, how the Jays have tumbled from World Series contender to likely draft lottery participant, and how the organization has responded to those disappointments. Finally, we'll note that, despite it all, one thing is keeping the Jays alive in the here and now.
The complete and total offensive collapse is mostly to blame for what's befallen John Schneider's club this season. Consider the following 2025 to 2026 key indicators … That's not an offensive decline; that's an outright collapse. Toronto last season excelled with runners on base and in scoring position, and that was likely to undergo a correction.
This is a cratering that goes well beyond standard regression. At an individual level, the leading culprits are DH George Springer and first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. In terms of OPS+, Springer has seen his production decline a whopping 44.4% from last season to this one.
At the time, Springer's outstanding 2025 looked like a late-career renaissance, but now the 36-year-old appears to be back in his deep decline phase. As for Guerrero Jr., his OPS+ has fallen from 132, or 32% better than the league-average OPS on a park-adjusted basis, in 2025 to 91, or 9% worse than the league average, in 2026. Especially jarring is Guerrero Jr.'s loss of power.
This season, he has just seven home runs -- all on the road -- and he's slugging just .356. First base is a power position, which makes those numbers all the more unacceptable. He just hasn't been able to elevate the ball consistently, as he ranks in just the 10th percentile of MLB hitters this season when it comes to how often he hits the ball at the ideal launch angle range for power production.
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