President Donald Trump’s approval rating has changed little during the final month before the midterm elections, but it is markedly weaker than at the beginning of the year, according to a Newsweek analysis of four national polling trackers. Rolling data from Civiqs, Silver Bulletin, The New York Times and RealClearPolling all placed his net approval more than 20 points underwater on October 1, setting a difficult national backdrop for Republicans seeking to retain control of Congress. On October 29, it ranged from 33 percent to 38.4 percent, while disapproval stood at approximately 60 percent across every measure.
Across the four measures, Trump’s net approval rating was between 11 and 11.8 points worse on October 29 than at the beginning of 2026. Midterm elections have historically proved difficult for the party controlling the White House, placing Republican congressional candidates under pressure as voters deliver their first nationwide verdict on the opening two years of Trump’s second term. Civiqs recorded a slight deterioration during October.
Averages from Silver Bulletin, The New York Times and RealClearPolling showed modest improvements, but none amounted to a significant late recovery. The three polling averages draw upon different surveys and methodologies, so their estimates should be compared for direction rather than combined. White House spokesperson Davis Ingle told Newsweek that Trump remained the Republican Party’s “unequivocal leader” and “unmatched motivator,” arguing that the president’s connection with the MAGA movement and record in office would help the party defend its congressional majorities.
Newsweek examined Trump’s standing at three points: January 1, October 1 and October 29. Net approval is calculated by subtracting the share disapproving from the share approving. A rating of -27 means disapproval exceeds approval by 27 percentage points.
Civiqs was used as the continuous trend line because it surveys registered voters within the same series. The averages maintained by Silver Bulletin, The New York Times and RealClearPolling were used to determine whether the broader polling showed a similar trajectory. Newsweek did not combine the four into a new average because they use different source polls, survey populations and weighting systems.
On January 1, Civiqs placed Trump at 40 percent approval and 56 percent disapproval. By October 1, approval had fallen to 34 percent while disapproval reached 60 percent, widening the deficit to 26 points. The October 29 tracker placed approval one point lower at 33 percent, with disapproval unchanged.
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