Several countries across the Mediterranean have reportedly been informed by the CIA of a possible imminent Russian operation, according to an investigation published by Spanishdaily El Mundo on September 24. American intelligence suggests the plan would involve drones launched from Russian vessels disguised as commercial ships and directed towards Spain, Italy and even France, the newspaper reported. To display this content from YouTube, you must enable advertisement tracking and audience measurement.
One of your browser extensions seems to be blocking the video player from loading. To watch this content, you may need to disable it on this site. The report details the use of a specific type of drone: the Gerbera, which is smaller and lighter than the Shahed or Geran systems deployed and causing extensive damage in Ukraine.
A merchant ship crossing the Med could carry several Gerberas aboard, taking between one-and-a-quarter to two hours to reach the Italian, Spanish or French coasts. But the size of the device would render the weapons incapable of delivering significant ammunition. Instead, the likely objective would be to surprise through unexpected attack, or to cause light damage upon impact, explained the El Mundo report, citing Lithuanian officials familiar with the information obtained by the CIA.
However, in an interview with TF1 and France 2 on Thursday evening, French President Emmanuel Macron contradicted the Spanish report, claiming to know nothing about Russia’s plans and sharing that the CIA had not informed the French authorities about any potential attack. And herein lies the problem: experts highlight the ambiguity at the core of such revelations. Mark Lacy, a specialist in Russian hybrid warfare at Lancaster University, explained the move by Russia could be an act – a manipulative tactic of cognitive and psychological warfare: “An important tactic of hybrid war or ‘the grey zone’ is what we call cognitive warfare or psychological warfare … it’s about the perception of what’s occurring.” And both Russia – as well as the Western countries supporting Ukraine – could use this to their advantage.
Indeed, according to Lacy it seems that Russia may have deliberately conveyed plans to extend its hybrid campaign into the Mediterranean, without ever intending to act. He explained that the goal of Russia is to sow the seeds of doubt and panic – and at times, threat can be more effective than execution. His rationale is that, although drone attacks, munitions factory raids and other strategic warfare moves so far have primarily concerned countries in northern and central Europe, in reality, the whole continent is affected, and as such, Spain, Italy and France are not spared.
In Spain, back in 2017, Russia was accused of actively supporting the Catalan independence movement with the aim of splitting the nation. Then in 2024, Russian agents were suspected of cyberattacks across online banking sites and other digital infrastructure. Meanwhile in France, several events – including vandalism in May 2024 of the Holocaust Memorial in Paris, which saw dozens of red hands painted around its perimeter – have been attributed to Russia.
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