Last month, I made a simple assertion: Stanley Druckenmiller's decision to buy call options in Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) was less of a bet on its artificial intelligence (AI) efforts and more likely a wager on the value of Full Self-Driving (FSD). The company's Robotaxi platform and its Optimus humanoid robots are projects that still live mostly in the future. By contrast, FSD already boasts paying users, a rising attach rate, and the kind of recurring revenue Wall Street pays a premium for.
Just last week, mutual fund investor Ron Baron -- a longtime Elon Musk supporter -- went on CNBC and walked through almost the exact same idea. Baron boldly claimed that the time to buy Tesla stock is now, and he put FSD right at the center of his thesis. Act 2 Could Be 15x Bigger.
Most investors think they missed the AI boat because they didn't buy Nvidia in 2005. But according to our analysts, we're only at the end of "Act 1"—the R&D phase. "Act 2" is the global rollout.
Continue » While that does not explicitly show that Druckenmiller bought Tesla calls under the same thesis, it does show how two very different billionaires are circling the same opportunity, and the premise attracting them to it doesn't seem to revolve around robots illustrated in a PowerPoint. Baron did not spend much time lingering on the idea of humanoid robots. When asked how much of his Tesla thesis rests on cars versus robots, he simply replied that he's "not giving a lot to the robots," and went so far as to call them "dystopian." It's a rare instance of Baron appearing to have a different view from his longtime friend Musk, who has gone on the record saying Optimus could become "Tesla's biggest product ever." During the second quarter, Tesla reported 1.48 million active FSD subscriptions, up 56% year over year.
The company also said that it is seeing "elevated interest" in markets with FSD approval, with more than 55% of new deliveries in North America now coming with the subscription feature activated. These trends suggest that self-driving is no longer an add-on for Tesla enthusiasts. Instead, the technology is quietly becoming the default choice.
This is why I leaned so hard into FSD when I wrote about Druckenmiller's investment in Tesla. While Robotaxi and Optimus get the headlines, there are harsh realities that need to be accepted about both of these businesses. For starters, Robotaxi's paid miles are still small.
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