Azerbaijan’s external economic position is gaining fresh international recognition as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) significantly upgrades its current account surplus forecasts for 2026 and 2027. According to the IMF’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook, Azerbaijan’s current account surplus is projected to reach 11.3% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026 and 9.8% in 2027. The revised estimates compare with previous projections of 9.7% and 5.4%, respectively, highlighting the country’s substantial capacity to generate foreign currency through international economic activity.
The figures carry considerable importance for Azerbaijan’s macroeconomic stability, currency market and long-term development strategy. A current account surplus represents the excess of a country’s international earnings from goods, services, income and transfers over its corresponding payments abroad. For Azerbaijan, energy exports remain the principal source of this financial strength, supported by the country’s established position in international oil and natural gas markets.
The first half of 2026 provides a clear illustration of this performance. Azerbaijan recorded a current account surplus of approximately $4.74 billion, equivalent to 12.4% of GDP, compared with $2.32 billion during the corresponding period of 2025. The improvement reflects the strength of export revenues and the contribution of favourable international energy prices to the national balance of payments.
The energy sector generated a current account surplus of approximately $9.06 billion during the first six months of 2026, representing a 23.6% annual increase. Meanwhile, the non-oil and gas sector recorded a current account deficit of around $4.32 billion, which narrowed by 13.7% year on year. These figures illustrate the central role of hydrocarbons in Azerbaijan’s external accounts alongside encouraging developments across the broader economy.
Azerbaijan’s merchandise trade figures reinforce this picture. Total exports reached approximately $14.3 billion in January–June 2026, increasing by 16.9% year on year. Oil and gas exports accounted for $12.3 billion, while non-oil and gas exports approached $2 billion, registering annual growth of 18%.
Imports totalled approximately $8.1 billion, leaving a merchandise trade surplus of around $6.1 billion. These results have direct implications for currency stability. Strong export receipts increase the supply of foreign currency entering the economy, creating favourable conditions for meeting import payments, servicing external obligations and supporting the exchange-rate framework.
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