This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: As Africa prepares for the arrival of a powerful El Niño weather event, an international team of researchers led by the University of Sydney and Imperial College London has found that access to improved forecasts alone will not protect many of the region's poorest livestock farmers from the impacts of climate change. Published today in Nature Sustainability, the study shows that weather information must be paired with practical "risk-smoothing" measures, such as supplementary livestock feed, drought insurance, targeted financial support or improved market access, so farmers at risk of losing livestock can act before drought strikes.
By combining improved access to climate information with supported risk-smoothing, livestock farmers can avoid environmental trade-offs that occur when either is used in isolation. Matt Clark, a research associate in sustainability science with the Thriving Oceans Research Hub in the University of Sydney's School of Geosciences, said climate variability was becoming an "inequity multiplier." "If the forecasts prove correct and we see a near-record El Niño develop, we expect this will amplify inequalities across southern African rangelands," Clark said. "The problem isn't that poor farmers don't have climate information.
The problem is they often can't afford to act on it. Wealthier producers can reduce herd sizes ahead of drought and rebuild when conditions improve. Many small-scale pastoralists simply don't have that financial buffer." Across southern Africa, millions of pastoralists depend on cattle, sheep and goats grazing vast rangelands stretching across Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe.
Livestock are far more than a source of income; they are a family's savings, food security and cultural identity, often passed down through generations. As climate change brings more variability between good seasons and severe drought, those communities face increasingly difficult decisions. Wealthier livestock owners can often sell animals before drought, preserve their savings and rebuild their herds when conditions improve.
Poorer pastoralists are frequently forced to keep their animals on increasingly stressed landscapes, risking devastating livestock losses that can trap families in poverty. "It's not that the people we work with aren't thinking about adapting to climate change," said Dr. Gina Arena, science lead for Herding for Health, Conservation International.
"It's that with greater uncertainty in climate comes greater risk. We need to help people identify the best decisions and reduce the risk of implementation. Research like this helps us do that," Arena said.
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