President Donald Trump will hold a midterm rally in Daytona Beach on Friday as Republicans seek to boost turnout in two statewide races that are closer than expected. Once a perennial battleground, Florida has shifted sharply toward the GOP in recent election cycles, yet its current polling margins are well short of Trump’s 13.1-point victory there in 2024. Voters in the state’s U.S.
Senate election will choose between Ashley Moody, the sitting senator appointed by Governor Ron DeSantis in 2025 after serving six years as Florida attorney general, and Angie Nixon, a Jacksonville lawmaker first elected to the Florida House in 2020 and now seeking statewide office. Republicans are emphasizing Nixon’s Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) membership, while Democrats argue affordability will carry greater weight with voters. Meanwhile, Florida’s open governor’s race pits Republican U.S.
Representative Byron Donalds, a prominent Trump ally from southwest Florida, against Democrat David Jolly, a former Republican congressman who left the GOP and is attempting a political comeback under a new party banner. The contest tests whether Florida’s rightward shift will endure beyond term-limited DeSantis, with Donalds offering Republican continuity and Jolly courting independents and disaffected GOP voters through a campaign focused on affordability and property insurance. RealClearPolling averages for the Senate and gubernatorial contests put Moody 6.2 points ahead and Donalds 5 points in front, respectively.
Prediction markets still favor both Republicans, although traders see greater uncertainty in the governor’s contest: Polymarket prices imply about a 90 percent chance of a Moody victory and a 73 percent chance of a Donalds win. RealClearPolling ranks the Senate race as Leans GOP, while calling the governorship a Toss Up. The Cook Political Report, however, rates the Senate race Solid Republican but moved the governorship into its more competitive Lean Republican category at the beginning of October.
Newsweek emailed all four campaigns for comment on Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning and is awaiting responses. The rally begins at 7 p.m. Friday at the Ocean Center, four days before Election Day and one week after Trump appeared in Fort Myers.
The president, who frequently spends time in his adopted home state and at his Mar-a-Lago estate, then cast his ballot early alongside first lady Melania Trump in West Palm Beach the following day. He told reporters he had voted for Republicans across the ticket. Evan Power, chairman of the Republican Party of Florida, told Newsweek that party officials were "confident where we are." He denied that private polling drove the rally decision.
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