In the early 2000s, Premier League defences tried to make the pitch as small as possible, giving their opposition less space to score in. Coaches therefore encouraged their attackers to play quickly, taking advantage of open space that saw them face fewer defenders. It was Pep Guardiola's influence that, in part, flipped this logic on its head over the last decade.
His Manchester City sides looked to force teams back into a compact defence, a challenge that in theory should be harder to break down. The counter logic was that they were forcing opponents to give them a familiar challenge they were prepared for. City's defenders also had big spaces to cover, often standing at the halfway line.
But for Guardiola, those spaces were less worrying if the ball stayed near the opposition's goal for as long as possible. After all, if you have the ball, the opposition cannot score. So why now are teams that dominate the ball dropping points?
Across this season's opening 50 Premier League matches, teams recording at least 60% possession have won only 36.4% of those games, while in 2023-24, the figure was 53.5%. Does this suggest possession football is on the way out? Well, the answer isn't that simple.
Are teams winning because of their low possession, or having less possession because they have taken the lead early? There could be some truth in both answers. Let's use Xabi Alonso's Chelsea as a case study.
They won their opening games against Fulham and Brighton - 3-2 and 4-3 respectively - with the minority of possession, then drew 2-2 with Hull and lost 3-0 to Brentford despite having considerably more of the ball. Against Brighton, Chelsea's 25.6% possession and 146 successful passes were their lowest recorded figures in a Premier League match, with records beginning in 2003-04. For three of them, accelerating play from throw-ins and counter-attacks allowed their direct attackers to find space against fewer defenders.
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