No politician craves obscurity, but it is better to be unknown than despised. That is consolation for Liberal Democrats, gathered in Brighton for their annual conference, fretting about Ed Davey’s low profile and wondering whether a more prominent leader would hoist their flagging poll ratings. Renewal by decapitation is a concept that has succeeded twice this parliament for other parties.
Labour’s fortunes were transformed when Andy Burnham entered No 10. The Greens enjoyed a polling surge last year when Zack Polanski was elected leader. In the fidgety culture of British politics, Davey’s six-year reign feels like an aeon.
But the experience of other parties has little to teach the Lib Dems. Keir Starmer didn’t suffer from underexposure. The country watched a showcase of his abilities and didn’t like what it saw.
Polanski’s talent for harvesting clicks on social media has expanded his audience, especially among younger voters, but the Green leader hasn’t shown that he can sustain that interest. Increased scrutiny may not do him any favours. The chart mapping his favourability ratings since taking the job shows a stable core of fans beneath a steadily rising line of disapproval, suggesting that, outside a Green comfort zone, the more people see of Polanski, they less they like.
The equivalent picture for Davey tells a story of flat indifference. Voters don’t have a clear sense of what the Lib Dem leader stands for, but they don’t feel threatened by him, which is an underrated value in a leader whose prospects depend on tactical voting. His supporters aren’t relaxed about a polling slump but they argue that the party’s tally of seats in parliament and on local councils is evidence that more has gone right than wrong in recent years.
There are 72 Lib Dem MPs – a record high – and reasons to expect that number to grow at the next election. The party prides itself on tenacious incumbency, digging in deep and fortifying each seat with local activism. Lib Dems are resented by rivals for the same reason, compared to cockroaches for their stubborn resistance to removal.
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