Democrat James Talarico has established a narrow but consistent polling advantage over Republican Ken Paxton. Senate victory in Texas closer to his party’s reach than it was at the same stage of Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 campaign. But polling leads alone do not solve the problem that has plagued every recent Democratic statewide candidate in Texas: turning a younger and more diverse potential coalition into an electorate that actually votes.
Understanding whether Talarico can overcome that problem requires more than comparing poll numbers. "Most of the elements are falling into place for Democrats, but without an actual victory under their belt, it’s hard to imagine how it actually happens," Joshua M. Blank, director of research for the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, told Newsweek in a phone call.
"I think the thing that we’re really watching at this point is Republican enthusiasm numbers." The candidates, their opponents, and the political circumstances surrounding the 2018 and 2026 races are substantially different. O’Rourke, a former El Paso city council member and three-term U.S. representative, became a national Democratic figure when he challenged Republican Senator Ted Cruz in 2018. He later sought the Democratic presidential nomination and ran unsuccessfully for Texas governor.
Talarico is a former public-school teacher who was first elected to the Texas House in 2018 and now represents District 50. Paxton, meanwhile, who has been endorsed by President Donald Trump, is Texas’ attorney general, an office he has held since 2015 after serving in both chambers of the state legislature. His tenure has also been defined by major legal and ethical controversies.
In May 2023, the Texas House adopted 20 articles of impeachment against him. The Texas Senate later tried 16 articles and acquitted him, allowing him to return to office. All this makes the 2026 contest a different electoral test from 2018.
O’Rourke nearly defeated an incumbent Republican senator in a state where Democrats had repeatedly lost statewide; Talarico is seeking the same breakthrough against a Republican whose personal ratings and record may make the contest less reflective of Texas’ usual partisan balance. The RealClearPolitics (RCP) average places Talarico at 48.4 percent and Paxton at 45.3 percent, a 3.1-point Democratic advantage across surveys conducted from September 12 to October 5. Its five newest listed polls put Talarico ahead by between one and six points.
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