Democratic Texas Senate hopeful James Talarico has the support of a significantly higher proportion of 2024 Donald Trump voters than his Republican opponent, Attorney General Ken Paxton, does from 2024 Kamala Harris voters, according to a new Big Data Poll. Democrats are hoping to flip the Senate and the House at the November midterms, either one of which would significantly impede President Trump’s ability to get legislation passed during the final two years of his second term. Winning a Senate seat from Texas, a traditional Republican stronghold, would be a major coup for the Democrats who last won a Senate race in The Lone Star State in 1988.
Newsweek contacted the Talarico and Paxton Senate campaigns for comment on Monday via email outside of regular office hours. Polling company Big Data Poll surveyed 698 likely Texas voters between September 24 and September 26. The headline figure is Talarico, currently a Texas State Representative, leads Paxton by 44.6 percent of the vote to 41.6 percent once voters who only “lean” toward one candidate are excluded.
Notably Talarico has the support of 15 percent of voters who say they backed Trump at the 2024 presidential election, while Paxton only has the backing of 4.3 percent of those who say they voted for Harris. Similarly, 89.3 percent of 2024 Harris voters said they would support Talarico, compared to only 72.2 percent of 2024 Trump voters for Paxton. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.
In 2024, Trump won Texas by a margin of 13.7 percentage points, with 56.2 percent of the vote against 42.5 percent for Harris. The Big Data Poll findings on Talarico and Paxton’s support from 2024 presidential election campaign voters is matched by the results of a SoCal Strategies poll of 649 likely Texas voters, conducted from 12 to 13 September. This survey found Talarico has the support of 95 percent of voters who backed Harris in 2024 along with 14 percent of Trump voters from that year.
By contrast, Paxton has the backing of 84 percent of 2024 Trump voters and only four percent of 2024 Harris voters. Noticeably, SoCal Strategies found Paxton performs significantly worse with 2024 Harris voters than Texas Governor Greg Abbott, who is being challenged by Democrat Gina Hinojosa. Abbott has the backing of 89 percent of 2024 Trump voters and 13 percent of Harris voters, while Hinojosa is backed by 87 percent of Harris voters and nine percent of Trump voters.
Overall, the SoCal Strategies poll gave Talarico a five-point lead with 50 percent of the vote to 45 percent for Paxton. By contrast, it found Abbott lead Hinojosa by 52 percent against 44 percent. Friday saw the publication of a Texas Public Opinion Research survey, which found Talarico was leading Paxton by five points, with 49 percent of the vote against 44 percent.
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