The James Talarico hype train is thundering through Texas, powered by poll after poll showing the Democrat leads Republican rival Ken Paxton in a gripping Senate race that could flip a red state blue for the first time in, well, a long time. Talarico is young, charismatic, and devoutly Christian. He’s also liberal on issues like abortion and LGBTQ+ rights, once describing God as nonbinary, the kind of stance that has earned him the nickname "Tala-freak-o" among his Republican opponents.
Paxton, on the other hand, is a classic, red-blooded Texas Republican, but one whose political career is checkered by scandal and controversy, including allegations of corruption. MAGA loves him; Texas isn’t so sure. It’s all looking like Talarico’s to lose right now.
We’ve seen this story before. Remember Beto O’Rourke’s near-miss in 2018? But there’s a closer precedent that should slow the wheels of the Talarico train.
And there’s a clear echo. That’s Talarico’s lead over Paxton in Emerson College’s latest Texas poll, 47 percent to 46. It was also Ted Cruz’s lead over Colin Allred in Emerson’s final Texas poll of 2024, 48 to 47.
Thirteen days later, Cruz won by 8.5 points. The polling echo isn’t a forecast. The candidates, the electorate, and the year are all different.
But it is a warning about the story now being told in which Talarico’s leads are read as evidence that Texas is finally turning blue again. His edge in the major polling averages is three to four points. That’s smaller than the more than four-point miss Texas polls produced two years ago.
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