The “jaw-dropping” El Niño currently heating up the planet has burst through the highest temperature ever recorded for the phenomenon, several months ahead of its expected peak. The latest data shows the temperature rise at the heart of El Niño in the Pacific ocean has now reached 3.05C. That is higher than the 3.02C set in late November 2015, the previous high set in the 150 years of modern records.
This temperature is measured against the average of 1991-2020. The preferred measure of most meteorologists uses a 30-year rolling average as a reference and so takes account of human-caused global heating. This metric, called ONI (Nino3.4), is on the brink of breaking the record, just one-hundredth of a degree below the 2015 record.
Both metrics are underpinned by data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The most recent forecasts predict a peak of 4.0C in November and December, according to the average of 14 different models assessed by climate scientist Zeke Hausfather. That is a level so far above previous events that Hausfather called it “mind-blowing”, while others have described it as “Godzilla-level”.
Any temperature rise above 0.5C is deemed an El Niño; above 2C is called a super El Niño. The current El Niño is likely to be the largest in at least 1,000 years and will pile extra heat into an atmosphere in which temperatures are already rising rapidly due to human-caused global heating. This double whammy means 2027 is set to “blow apart” previous records and become the hottest year ever recorded.
The climate crisis, caused by pollution from fossil fuels, is already supercharging extreme weather and killing people. The El Niño will ratchet up the impacts even further, and has already begun to affect regions across the planet as weather patterns are altered. Prof Friederike Otto, at Imperial College London, said: “This event is a huge redistribution of energy in the climate system and is dangerous because it is unfolding on top of a much warmer, human-influenced climate system.
Drought conditions in Central America and the Caribbean are causing crop losses and a slowdown of trade due to low water levels in the Panama canal. The World Food Programme said in August the impacts of El Niño were likely to push about 50 million people into acute hunger and drive prices up. El Niño years also see more intense rains and flooding in some regions, with Peru and Chile already suffering, and access to Machu Picchu is disrupted.
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