President Donald Trump will campaign in Vandalia, Ohio, on Saturday as Republicans face the possibility of losing both the state’s Senate election and its race for governor. The outcome of both midterm election contests could carry consequences beyond Ohio. Vice President JD Vance is not on the ballot, but Ohioans could hand the Senate seat he vacated to a Democrat while denying his party the governor’s mansion in the state that launched him into national office.
That would give Vance an unwelcome historical comparison as speculation continues about whether he will seek the Republican presidential nomination in 2028: Al Gore, the last vice president whose former Senate seat was swept up in a dramatic midterm rejection in his home state. In 1994, Republicans won the special election for the Tennessee Senate seat Gore had left to become vice president. They also defeated the state’s other Democratic senator and captured the governorship, in a result contemporary reporting described as a Republican sweep, two years after Tennessee had supported the Democratic presidential ticket.
Ohio in 2026 would not be an exact repeat. Only one Senate seat is being contested there in November. But a Democratic victory in both of the state’s marquee races would produce a similar political image: the governing party losing the highest-profile contests in its vice president’s home state.
The Ohio Senate and gubernatorial campaigns are emphasizing economic growth, inflation and taxes, healthcare access and costs, education, abortion policy, energy, and public safety. Candidates differ over how government should address these issues, including taxation, healthcare affordability, reproductive rights, school funding, energy development, and crime, making policy differences central to campaign messaging. Newsweek reached out to Vance through his White House office by email on Wednesday morning for comment and is awaiting a response.
Ohio backed Trump by 11 percentage points in 2024, making the state’s sudden competitiveness an unusually stark test of Republican strength. For Vance, the results could also shape perceptions of his political influence before the next presidential election. A Republican defeat in either race could be explained by candidate quality, the national environment or voters’ views of the administration.
Losing both would be harder to separate from the standing of the party’s most prominent Ohio politician. Polling does not show either race decided. However, the latest RealClearPolitics averages put Democrats ahead in both contests.
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