Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff led Republican Representative Mike Collins by more than six points in a new survey from pollster Trafalgar Group. The poll was published this weekend, just before the 50-day mark ahead of the November 3 midterms. The poll is the latest in a series of polls showing Ossoff with a lead in the Peach State, as the Georgia Senate race remains one of the most closely watched contests of the midterms.
Republicans believe the race is competitive, pointing to President Donald Trump’s 2-point victory over former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024. But Democrats believe that Trump’s national approval rating, which has declined amid economic concerns, could give them an advantage in the closely divided swing state. Although Georgia backed Trump in 2024, former President Joe Biden won it four years earlier in 2020, and it reelected Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock in 2022.
Growth around the blue-shifting Atlanta metro has turned the once-Republican state into a battleground, and Democrats hope those trends will continue to boost Ossoff this year. Ossoff received support from 49.4 percent of respondents, while Collins’ support stood at 42.8 percent, according to the poll. Only 1.3 percent said they would vote for Libertarian candidate Allen Buckley, while 6.5 percent were still undecided, the poll found.
It surveyed 1,091 respondents from September 10-12 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. Trafalgar was founded by Robert Cahaly, who has served as a political consultant for Republicans, and is generally seen as having a Republican lean. It has overestimated Republicans in some races, particularly in 2022, but also correctly predicted Trump’s victory in 2016 even as many other pollsters forecasted that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton held an advantage.
An Ossoff campaign spokesperson told Newsweek, “Georgia is a battleground state and Senator Ossoff is already facing millions of dollars of Republican spending against him. The Ossoff campaign will continue to build unstoppable momentum and work to earn every vote across the state of Georgia.” Newsweek also reached out to the Collins campaign for comment via email. Other recent polling similarly gives Ossoff a lead over Collins, who was first elected to the House of Representatives in 2022.
Ossoff led by 7 points in the latest poll from InsiderAdvantage, which placed the Democratic incumbent’s support at 50 percent, while 43 percent said they would vote for Collins. Seven percent of respondents said they were undecided about how they would vote in the general election. The poll surveyed 800 likely voters August 16 to 17 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.46 percentage points.
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