Four German Air Force Eurofighter jets stand ready at Latvia's Lielvarde military air base, just 60 kilometers from Riga. The aircraft are part of NATO's efforts to strengthen Baltic air defenses on the alliance's eastern flank ahead. Germany sent the jets amid repeated drone incursions, which have put Latvia on alert ahead of the country's elections on October 3.
Security has become one of the defining issues of this campaign — defense promises appearing on the programs of most of the leading parties in Latvia. And the Latvian public's anxieties aren't unfounded. In recent months, several drones have entered Baltic airspace.
The latest incident occurred on September 15 in Lithuania, when a drone believed to have crossed from Belarus was shot down by an NATO fighter jet. On top of that there are hybrid threats, including migrant flows that Latvia and its neighbors say are being encouraged by Russia's ally Belarus to pressure the EU and test border security. Intelligence officials of several European countries, including Latvia and the Czech Republic have warned that Russia could seek to test NATO in the upcoming "months, not years." "There are concerns in the West and also here in the Baltic states that Russia might be trying some further actions here in the Baltics," says Maris Andzans, director of the Center for Geopolitical Studies in Riga.
"If you want to test NATO, there is no better place than the Baltic states." Latvia elects its 100-seat parliament, Saeima, through proportional representation, meaning coalition governments are the norm. Polls currently put the centrist United List, led by Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs ahead, followed by the populist alliance Sovereign Power/Young Latvians Alliance and Latvia First led by Ainars Slesers. The center-left Progressives and the conservative National Alliance are also expected to enter parliament.
Most of these Latvian parties view Russia as a security challenge. "The biggest threat is our neighbors, Russia and Belarus," says Agnese Kupca of the United List. "Our partners in the EU should understand: it is not only our border with Russia, but also EU and NATO border with aggressor." Latvia is one of the few NATO members that have committed by law to spending 5% of GDP on defense, and analysts say the country's foreign policy orientation is unlikely to change regardless of which coalition emerges after the vote as there is nearly unanimous consensus on the importance of NATO.
Which is backed by their voters: according to Friedrich Ebert Stiftung (FES) Security Radar 2025 Latvians generally have a positive view of NATO. But while security policy enjoys broad agreement, the economic consequences of Latvia distancing itself from Russia remain contentious. Before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia was among Latvia's most important trading partners.
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