This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: For generations, the lobster fishery has been central to the cultural and economic identity of Maine and Atlantic Canada. Predicting what the future holds for the species—and the people who depend on it—has long been a priority for scientists and resource managers.
Today, an abundance of data and increasingly sophisticated algorithms have led to a proliferation of forecasts predicting lobster abundance, landings and habitat change. But these projections don't exist in a vacuum: they are interpreted within different social contexts and can shape real-world management decisions. For example, Maine lobster fishers who lived through dire predictions of collapse in the 1970s and '80s are likely to be more skeptical of current forecasts, depending on how the predictions are communicated.
"People's reactions to forecasts are just as interesting as the forecasts themselves," said Nick Record, senior research scientist and director of the Tandy Center for Ocean Forecasting. "Forecasting the ocean isn't just scientific—it's social." Record is the lead author of a new paper exploring the history of lobster outlooks to identify lessons for the future of ecological forecasting. The paper is published in the journal FACETS.
The team examined how lobster forecasts have evolved and how they have been acted on using news archives, historical landing data, oceanographic data and archival quotes capturing industry responses. Together, the data illuminate how to make forecasts most useful in an increasingly unpredictable environment. Their analysis highlights the importance of considering historical and sociocultural contexts when communicating forecasts, particularly when those forecasts inform decisions about fishing effort, boat investments, pricing and other consequential aspects of the fishery.
The Tandy Center for Ocean Forecasting recently took ownership of the National Ocean Economics Program (NOEP), which provides accessible economic and social data on the health and value of oceans and marine resources. This study offers one example of how these social data can be paired with scientific information to help the public understand changes in these ecosystems and how they will affect coastal communities. "If we want to understand the ocean's future, we have to understand its past, both in terms of the oceanographic and socioeconomic dynamics," Record said.
The project includes Research Associate Johnathan Evanilla and Senior Research Scientist Maya Groner, as well as partners at the University of Maine and the University of Victoria. Record et al, Forecasting in hindsight for the American lobster fishery, FACETS (2026). DOI: 10.1139/facets-2025-0113 Provided by Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences BSc Life Sciences & Ecology.
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