Bamako, Mali – In Bamako, a fuel blockade has exposed the vulnerability of supply routes into the capital. In the north, separatist and armed groups have increasingly coordinated against the state, while the government faces questions over how much territory it can effectively control. On September 10, less than two weeks before Mali’s independence anniversary, the Al Qaeda-affiliated armed group Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimeen (JNIM) attacked an army camp in Dioura in central Mali.
The attack followed an April offensive in which JNIM and the Tuareg-led Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), which seeks greater autonomy or independence for northern Mali, coordinated attacks on military and strategic sites in Bamako, Kati, Mopti, Gao and Kidal. Defence Minister Sadio Camara was killed in the attacks, which exposed the vulnerability of government forces in several parts of the country. The April offensive followed months of pressure on the capital’s supply lines.
Since September 2025, JNIM has targeted fuel tankers and highways carrying fuel from Senegal and Ivory Coast, causing severe shortages in Bamako and disrupting electricity supplies and schooling. On September 14, more than 900 fuel tankers entered Bamako under military escort, according to the Malian government. But the need to protect such a major operation illustrates the vulnerability of the routes connecting Bamako to its neighbours.
The government seized power in a coup in 2020, promising to restore security. The disruption of vital supply routes, however, has highlighted the difficulty of protecting access to the capital across a vast country. Northern Mali has long been at the centre of Tuareg demands for greater autonomy or independence.
What has changed is the degree of coordination between JNIM and the FLA in confronting the government, despite their different long-term objectives. Beverly Ochieng, senior analyst at Control Risks, told Al Jazeera that the relationship presents a challenge to the military government’s effort to consolidate control over the country’s territory. Periodic confrontations between the JNIM-FLA coalition and government forces will continue to undermine a political settlement to the violence,” she said.
Ochieng warned that both sides could harden their positions. She said Mali was likely to continue receiving diplomatic and security support from Algeria, its Alliance of Sahel States (AES) partners (Burkina Faso and Niger), and even Senegal and Togo, representing the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). She said that support could delay a deeper security crisis.
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