The Cook Political Report shifted 19 congressional races toward Democrats in their latest updates, less than two weeks out from the midterm elections. The new ratings are the latest warning sign for Republicans facing a challenging national environment as they defend their narrow majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
No seats were shifted toward Republicans in the latest update from the elections forecaster published on Friday. The update brings six seats that were previously classified as toss-ups into the Democratic column, while other shifts were in traditionally conservative seats that President Donald Trump carried by double-digits in 2024, that are now seen as competitive. The move comes as Trump’s approval rating has fallen to record lows ahead of the midterms.
Democrats have been optimistic about their chances of flipping the House, since they only need to win a handful of GOP-held seats to achieve a majority. Republicans currently hold 218 seats, while Democrats hold 214 seats, so only a few pickups would shift the balance of power. Historically, when the president is unpopular, his party loses seats in the midterms.
Such was the case during Trump’s first term in 2018, when Democrats flipped more than 40 House seats. Newsweek reached out to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) for comment via email. In total, the Cook Political Report classifies 186 seats as Solid Democratic and 168 seats as Solid Republican.
An additional 17 seats are seen as Likely Democratic, and 16 seats are Lean Democratic. Meanwhile, 13 seats are classified as Likely Republican and 17 are Lean Republican. Seventeen seats are in the Toss Up category.
Here is a look at where competitive races stand in the Cook Political Report as of October 23. Shapiro, a professor of political science at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, told Newsweek the updates indicate Democrats have “sustained their support and have momentum for getting control of the House and by a noticeable margin.” “This is striking,” he said. This shows the depth of perceptions of the Trump administration's poor performance on affordability, inflation, and the Iran War—and also increasing perceptions of corruption.” The following House races shifted toward Democrats in the new update from the Cook Political Report.
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