A recent forecast has highlighted the sharply contrasting effects a potentially unprecedented El Niño could have across the globe. The outlook points to wetter conditions in East Africa, parts of North America and western South America but increased risks of dryness, water shortages and agricultural disruption across Southern Africa, Southeast Asia, Central America, the Caribbean and the Amazon. El Niño is a naturally recurring climate pattern associated with warmer waters in the Pacific that can influence temperatures and rainfall patterns worldwide.
Forecasters around the globe are pointing to an event that could be historic, with far-reaching consequences. In the U.S., federal forecasters say the odds remain high for a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niños, dating to 1950. Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the U.K.’s Met Office, said in August that 2026 could far exceed recent experiences of El Niño and its worldwide climate influences.
Japan’s weather agency said this month that El Niño conditions had reached their strongest intensity on record. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has also said the ongoing El Niño event could be unprecedented in strength. The United Nations (U.N.) issued a Wednesday appeal “for immediate assistance to help communities already being impacted by the strongest El Niño weather pattern on record.” U.N.
Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator Tom Fletcher described the event as a “behemoth” and “a wrecking ball that will likely tear through Latin America, eastern and southern Africa, Asia and the Pacific with extreme heat, droughts and floods.” He warned that around 50 million people could face increased hunger. Fletcher said the next two weeks would be “critical.” Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya urgently require funding and emergency supplies before heavy rains arrive, while efforts in southern Africa are focused on distributing seeds and protecting livestock. Central American communities need support to safeguard livelihoods, and countries across Asia and the Pacific are preparing for potential droughts, floods and cyclones, the U.N. release said.
The agency also said it has released more than $50 million from its Central Emergency Response Fund to assist 11 countries, including Chad, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Somalia and South Sudan. A WMO update on Wednesday outlined the following potential global impacts from El Niño: East Africa: Wetter-than-normal conditions are more likely in parts of the region during the October-December rainy season, increasing concerns about heavy rainfall and flooding. Southern Africa: Increased risks of drier conditions could affect crop production, water availability and livelihoods from November (the typical start of the rainy season).
Southeast Asia: Warmer conditions and rainfall deficits increase the risk of heat exposure and place additional pressure on agriculture and water supplies, like the increase in wildfire and smoke-haze risks we are already seeing. The Americas: Increased rainfall in U.S. Northwest and southern parts of western South America, as shown in images of flooding in Chile and the Parana basin.
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