Two weeks before the midterm elections, the race ratings, forecasting models and most public polls are pointing the same way: Republicans are at greater risk of losing the Senate than at any point this cycle. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control outright. A 50-50 split would leave Vice President JD Vance breaking ties in the GOP's favor.
Democrats' likeliest pickup is North Carolina, where former Governor Roy Cooper has consistently led Republican Michael Whatley in polls, prompting Republicans to pull their spending out of the state. That leaves the party hunting for three more flips across a cluster of states President Donald Trump carried in 2024, including Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Alaska and Kansas, along with Maine, while defending an open seat in Michigan. Nearly every one of those races sits within the margin of error.
In several of them, polls badly underestimated Republicans in recent cycles, a pattern that keeps analysts from calling the chamber for Democrats. CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten said the Senate is too close to call, with many races within the margin of error. Many election experts agree and say that Democrats will have to wait until Election Day to see whether the polling holds or Republicans outperform and keep control.
Former North Dakota Senator Heidi Heitkamp, a Democrat, sees GOP turnout as the bigger unknown nationally. "The question is whether the Republicans can motivate their base to turn out," she told Newsweek. "That's a bigger question than whether Democrats will become overconfident and not go to the polls." The race handicappers have moved steadily toward Democrats.
On October 6, Cook Political Report shifted Kansas from Lean Republican to Toss Up, New Hampshire from Toss Up to Lean Democrat, and North Carolina from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat, expanding the range of possible Democratic pickups to as many as six seats. Cook's toss-ups are Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. Sabato's Crystal Ball lists Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio and Maine as toss-ups.
It moved Alaska to Leans Democratic the same day, and its editors noted that for the first time all cycle, Republicans now need to win more of its toss-ups to hold the Senate than Democrats need to win to flip it. Nate Silver's FLIPR model is the most bullish of the bunch. Silver put Democrats' chances at 75 percent on Monday and moved the chamber from "Lean D" to "Likely D," after the model had already hit a new high for Democrats earlier in October.
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