The battle for a Senate majority is seen as competitive ahead of the midterm elections, and the balance of power is likely to come down to seven toss-up races in which both major parties have invested significant funds and energy. Tuesday's Senate races in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas are seen as the most competitive, all rated toss-ups, where neither Republicans nor Democrats have a clear edge heading into Election Day on Tuesday. With the exception of Michigan, all of those seats are currently held by Republicans.
The GOP’s Senate majority has been seen as increasingly vulnerable in the final weeks ahead of the elections. Republicans currently hold 53 seats, compared to 47 held by Democrats and independents who caucus with them. That means Democrats must flip four seats to win a majority—a task that was seen as an uphill battle at the beginning of election season due to the limited number of clear pickup opportunities.
Maine and North Carolina represented the only GOP-held seats up for grabs in states that President Donald Trump either won by single digits or lost in 2024. But polling suggests Democrats have been able to expand the battleground to compete in more conservative states that Trump carried by double digits in his most recent elections, giving them a chance at winning control of Congress' upper chamber. Democrats are favored in every seat they currently hold, except for Michigan, and are seen as having an advantage to flip the North Carolina seat held by retiring Republican Thom Tillis, according to the Cook Political Report.
They also hope to make a play for more conservative states like Mississippi and South Carolina, but Republicans still have an edge there. That leaves those seven core races as those that could determine control of the Senate in the next Congress. Bernadette Breslin, the National Republican Senatorial Committee's national press secretary, expressed confidence in Republicans' chances in a statement to Newsweek.
"Senate Democrats’ socialist surge has reached a fever pitch, and their desperate conspiracies to defraud voters appear criminal. Common-sense voters across red-leaning battlegrounds are prepared to reject the dangerously unaffordable agendas of Abdul El-Sayed, Troy Jackson, and Mary Peltola—along with the Democrat Party’s dying brand," she said. Newsweek reached out to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) for comment via email.
The Senate has become more competitive as Trump’s approval rating fell to record lows in new polls. Historically, the party in the White House suffers losses in the midterms when the president is unpopular, so Trump’s declining approval has been seen as a red flag for Republicans in competitive races. The drop in Trump’s popularity has been attributed to increasing economic anxiety among voters amid a high cost of living.
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