Democrat Mary Peltola extended her polling lead over Republican Senator Dan Sullivan in Alaska on Sunday, with a 6-point advantage three weeks out from Election Day. The former U.S. representative's edge precedes President Donald Trump's trip to Alaska to rally for Sullivan, who has previously been boosted by his ties to the president but now appears hindered by them amid Trump's declining popularity in the Last Frontier. In polling, Peltola appears to have overcome allegations from former staffers that she had used slurs and had angry outbursts during her time in the House of Representatives, which her campaign said was in part due to her dealing with grief over the loss of her husband and mother within a few months.
Democrats are hoping Alaska can help deliver the Senate back into the party's control on November 3, alongside Texas, Maine, and a handful of other Republican strongholds. Newsweek reached out to both campaigns for comment Monday afternoon via email. The latest polling from InsiderAdvantage, of a survey of 1,200 likely voters on October 9 and October 10, showed Peltola on 48.2 percent of the vote during a first round, against 42.6 percent for Sullivan.
In the final round of Alaska's ranked choice voting, the potential result would be 50.1 percent to Peltola and 48 percent to Sullivan, the poll showed. While those surveyed were largely split along party lines, the crosstabs breakdown of the results showed 14.4 percent of Republicans would vote for the Democratic Party candidate. Another recent poll, conducted on October 1 to October 3 by Alaska Survey Research among 1,512 likely voters, showed Peltola on 51 percent and Sullivan on 49 percent in the final round.
While Sullivan has taken the lead in some polls this year, Peltola has largely been in front, mostly by a few points. The race remains tight in a state that has largely voted for GOP candidates in federal elections in recent years. "Alaska is impacted by the good Democratic environment just like so many other states are, and Peltola is a strong challenger," Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, previously told Newsweek.
"Additionally, Alaska has a top-four, ranked choice voting system that wasn't in place in 2020, and the structure of the ballot (Peltola is the only Democrat) likely aids her as well." Prediction markets have been painting an even bleaker picture for Sullivan. While the Republican was closely alongside Peltola on Polymarket's odds of a Senate seat win, at around a 50/50 percent split in August, the gap has gradually widened since, with Peltola on 72.5 percent chance of victory compared to 28.5 percent for Sullivan on Monday. A similar difference was seen on Kalshi, with Peltola on 75 percent and Sullivan 27 percent Monday afternoon.
The larger gap in the two candidates' rankings shows how prediction markets have been more bullish on the Democrat's chances, despite polls showing a far tighter race. Trump is due to continue his midterms campaign tour this week, despite not being on the ticket himself. After appearing in Ohio to rally for GOP candidate John Husted on Monday, Trump will hold a rally in red-leaning Wasilla to "promote U.S.
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